NFL Preseason Handicapping Basics

Among the sports betting public there\’s a lot of conflicting opinions about betting NFL preseason games. That\’s not really surprising, since there doesn\’t seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater \”lock\” that preseason football. Like most things that produce such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.

The opponent of preseason wagering would suggest that its a bad wagering opportunity by its very nature alone–simply stated, the games don\’t count meaning that the motivation and focus of individual teams is always in question. It\’s hard enough to identify teams that are in a desirable \’spot\’ during the regular season, the often conflicting agendas of personnel evaluation, playbook testing, and injury prevention found in the preseason makes it impossible. All told, this uncertainty makes it very undesirable to get financially involved with preseason NFL games.

But like the old saying goes \”every dark cloud has a silver lining\”. And the divergent agendas at play in preseason football can be seen as precisely why it is a good wagering opportunity. For example, say the Superbowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers are set to play an \’also ran\’ team like the Houston Texans. By regular season standards, the Steelers would almost certainly be favored. In the preseason, however, they\’ll often have a different agenda for the individual game. A \”better\” team has more concern about protecting key players. and usually has fewer personnel decisions to deal with. They don\’t need to worry about implementing coaching changes, or creating \’team chemistry\’. As a result, \’better\’ teams frequently approach preseason games as a mere annoyance.

NFL \’doormats\’, meanwhile, have a markedly different agenda to their more successful counterparts. They\’ve often got heated competition for starting positions or key back up roles. They\’ve often got new coaching staffs that players want to impress. Most significantly, they\’re in great need of establishing a winning attitude. A win against an elite team in a \’meaningless\’ preseason game often has a much greater value to this type of team than to a playoff contender.

Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don\’t want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%.

The philosophy of a NFL head coach is arguably the single most important factor contributing to preseason success. Some coaches always want to win, even if the games don\’t count in the standings. Other coaches place a much greater importance on evaluating personnel and giving backups playing time they won\’t have the opportunity to get during the regular season. The coaches that have a strong desire to win in the preseason often result in their team\’s pointspreads being inflated somewhat, but a motivated team is always worth consideration for a wager.

The Internet has become a very valuable weapon in the NFL preseason handicapper\’s arsenal. Simply following the local media reports of NFL teams can often produce a wealth of \’mission critical\’ betting information. The combination of anxious beat writers, little in the way of \’real\’ news, and a less guarded approach by coaches to games that \’don\’t count\’ can often reveal game strategies, playing time for key personnel, or even a team\’s specific agenda for a particular game. Sometime coaches will come right out and say that evaluating a certain position, or working on a specific offensive scheme is their top priority for a game. It\’s a great way to find not only good teams to bet on, but strong situations to go against teams that are focused on something other than outscoring their opponent.

In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.

Ross Everett is a well known freelance writer who covers travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, falconry and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.

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